Palin

My first thought was that she is a good choice to help them win, based on her interesting, appealing and not-strictly conservative history. However, I think she is going to fail to excite a great portion of the most conservative-of-conservative voters.

Whatever the case, I expect she will become a media darling, will receive much softer treatment from the media than either Barack or Hillary have, and will be seen to "win over" male media characters (like Chris Matthews) whose anti-Hillary bits had a misogynistic tinge to them (and this will be orchestrated, not spontaneous, of course).

What I can say with more certainty than all of the above is that this pick is a great object lesson for Democrats on how to play politics, how the Republicans operate, and how seriously they take what they're doing (the important premise to understanding the salience of these points is that a non-smart person can beat a smart person by taking what they're doing more seriously and working harder). The Republicans know that the biggest point of importance of the VP slot-- since it is unlikely a VP will get a chance to replace the President-- is what the VP does to make the ticket look more appealing in an election. Palin was chosen for how she will make people feel about the ticket. She provides a strong distraction from a lot of McCain's weaknesses, and she hits with the "sweet spot" against the weakness we created by dropping Hillary. Now the Republicans will get to see how a woman can stir up female conservative support.

Remember, women are 50% of the population, and they are a big part of swing voters! And people always like to help or hire someone they can identify with more than someone they can't! They've already got a white male on their ticket-- another white male might not add as much to their voting bloc as this woman can.

To fully appreciate whether Palin is a good choice for them, you have to look at the bullshit/showbiz aspect of it. You can't just say, "Who is this person professionally and what has she done in politics?" There is a low-brow aspect to American presidential elections that you can never forget totally if you want to always be able to appreciate what's going on. Think about it this way: Palin seems like who America would wish McCain was married to, doesn't she?

I'm not sure Mitt Romney wouldn't have been a more effective choice for them. But Palin is definitely a well-thought-over choice.

In the end, maybe it was Romney's family's connection to civil rights that rubbed them the wrong way (even though the commitment to civil rights might not have in actuality run that deep).

A final point: I doubt that her moderate stances are sincere ones, and feel her true stances on the issues will turn out to be much more conservative in the future.